Parliament
As it has been reported in the press, Barisan Nasional (BN) has won the 13th general elections but suffered their biggest loss of mandate, taking only 133 parliamentary seats, 15 seats short of the desired 2/3 supermajority in the Dewan Rakyat (Parliament Lower House) necessary to amend the Constitution. The opposition gained more votes in total, from the 89 seats they won and with the other votes, they managed to wrestle 51% of the popular vote, an increase of 3.2% from the preceding 2008 elections. In terms of popular vote, BN could only afford to be second best with a 47.5% stake in the total vote, a drop of 3.9% from 2008.
In terms of total seats, the opposition gained seven seats in Parliament, at the expense of BN, which lost five. This can be likely attributed to opposition party DAP maintaining its hold on power and increasing their seat count in parliament by 10, at the expense of the MCA, a traditional competitor of the DAP. The MCA lost heavily with eight of its parliamentary candidates losing and has been reduced to only seven elected candidates. This is where the recent term of "Chinese tsunami" finds its ground.
Resulting from the pre-election strategy of reallocating some seats traditionally held by component parties (such as MCA) as well from a minimal swing of Malay voters, Umno, the largest party in the BN coalition saw gains of 10 newly elected MPs from 2008. This also may suggest that the BN, a multiracial coalition to be tremendously politically weighted to its Malay nationalist party Umno, which has been leading the ruling coalition ever since its inception. The strong gains by Umno also shows that it has generally manage to resist the challenge of two other Malay-majority opposition parties - PKR and PAS. While the opposition saw big gains, it was more weighted to DAP than PKR and PAS because the latter two have suffered hairline losses, losing one and two seats respectively from the 2008 elections.
The second largest party in terms of number of elected MPs is Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) led by Chief Minister Taib Mahmud with 14 seats in Parliament. Being an undefeated party in the 2013 elections, PBB may be the second accompaniment to the Umno-led coalition. This may also suggest that there will be a surge of Sarawakian MPs also assuming ministerial roles because of PBB's strong showing in gaining public mandate from its rural strongholds in Sarawak.
BN chairman and newly sworn-in Prime Minister Najib Razak has 11 vacancies in his cabinet. The MCA has indicated that they will be not be accepting any ministerial roles, thus giving up the health, transport, housing and local governance and tourism portfolios. The MCA also had ministers without portfolio in the Prime Minister’s Office. While this may be the stand of the MCA as a party, nothing can be certain until the new cabinet line-up is announced in the next few days.
In terms of coalition politics, one can generally conclude that the BN is evidently slanted towards Umno, while one can observe that DAP, although with the most number of elected MPs, with PKR and PAS have a reasonably equitable political stake.
State seats
From the perspective of the states, the politics in Perak and Terengganu remains the tightest with BN edging the opposition by seat majorities of only 52% and 53% respectively. Meanwhile in Negri Sembilan and Kedah, BN won by a more comfortable majority of eight and six seats respectively. The rest of the states demonstrated largely obvious trends with Perlis with BN controlling 86% of the state assembly seats. BN also commands a 2/3 majority in Melaka (75%), Pahang (71%), Sabah (70%) and Johor (67%).
The opposition made big gains in Selangor and Penang, fortifying their position in the two most urbanized and industrialized states with a majority of 32 (78%) and 20 (70%) seats respectively. Meanwhile in Kelantan, PAS remains in power with a 21-seat majority, commanding 73% of the total seats in the state assembly.
Because of the slim majority, Perak and Terengganu are the most volatile states. After the general election in 2008, 16 by-elections were held, six for parliamentary seats and 10 for state seats. If the trend continues, this fixture of power may be set for future changes. For example, former Kedah MB and PAS politician Datuk Seri Azizan Razak is in a very critical condition and being treated at Penang Hospital. He won Sg Limau state seat at the recently concluded general election. If he conceeds his post due to illness, it may pave the way for fresh polls in the state seat.
Analysis
The opposition's campaign pledge to fight corruption was popular among urban voters and the Chinese community but failed to move rural votes, an important segment of Malaysian society and traditional vote bank for the BN.
While the opposition's call for change was audible in the urban areas with big turnouts at mega rallies, the political sentiment was not felt in the Malay rural heartland. Political persuasion in the rural areas found strength in casual, house-to-house, kampung, mid-scale meetings and "ceramahs" and at times with BN candidates turning to their incumbency in government to have greater weightage in promising what mattered to their rural electorate (agricultural, fishing support from government). Generally, the rural constituencies were not as sensitive to issues of eradicating corruption and transparent governance but rather the stability of their livelihoods that very much depended on governmental aid and subsidies.
Another pertinent point to be pointed out is on the popular vote, in fact the popular vote is split in the opposition’s favor. According to the Election Commission, BN polled 5.24 million votes to the opposition's 5.62 million votes. While people may take this as an indicator of Malaysia's general trend, it also reflects the outcome of rapid urbanization and how the lines of electoral constituencies are being drawn out. For example, there are almost 128,000 voters in the Selangor parliamentary constituencies of Hulu Langat while only 37000 in Sabak Bernam. Hulu Langat (with proper urban towns like Kajang and Semenyih) saw PAS chalking up victory but Sabak Bernam, which is very rural went to BN. This also brings the question if an urban vote and a rural vote has the same political influence.
While urban sentiment reverberated across the media and Internet, it may be possible that BN had deployed a better rural strategy than PKR. BN, especially Umno and its Sabah/Sarawak parties gave a more relevant message to the Malay/Bumiputra rural voters which maintain its position in securing their mandate and also, their hold on federal and state government.